Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 17.591328 21.293103 25.402824 30.278738 35.879675 42.085666 49.454661
2025-04-06 12.761192 17.720875 23.821631 31.763814 41.706246 53.612825 68.808688
2025-04-13 8.700424 13.625768 20.237552 29.522837 41.958355 57.753349 79.008635
2025-04-20 6.918676 11.971323 19.251476 30.099930 45.391987 65.677556 94.039032
2025-04-27 5.707988 10.813152 18.647481 30.936154 49.022763 73.891937 109.756809
2025-05-04 4.841598 9.974298 18.314900 32.005508 52.923718 82.578280 126.471123
2025-05-11 4.076108 9.121627 17.787980 32.637775 56.128652 90.372188 142.259867
2025-05-18 3.322659 8.110796 16.818883 32.400196 57.908928 96.117876 155.335479
2025-05-25 2.610669 7.000674 15.483106 31.355639 58.262371 99.675130 165.305661
2025-06-01 2.128437 6.239019 14.640712 31.013574 59.642942 104.770636 177.687339
2025-06-08 1.644614 5.335638 13.367741 29.728285 59.301888 107.106775 185.928493
2025-06-15 1.458962 5.098536 13.383141 30.791088 62.989524 115.941755 204.456759
2025-06-22 1.148897 4.479374 12.568369 30.328349 64.244497 121.358130 218.631375
2025-06-29 1.015331 4.313581 12.732822 31.837428 69.193190 133.196755 243.691160
2025-07-06 0.703302 3.471756 11.162095 29.593560 67.047172 133.030006 249.427880
2025-07-13 0.586866 3.216635 10.951836 30.171845 70.213938 142.024351 270.447539
2025-07-20 0.499695 3.027219 10.869447 31.009674 73.924523 152.122572 293.679260
2025-07-27 0.433357 2.888155 10.892940 32.081063 78.156680 163.320602 319.164184
2025-08-03 0.364336 2.700073 10.739033 32.714527 81.538304 173.137913 342.653684
2025-08-10 0.286521 2.419404 10.249214 32.476499 83.099262 179.710602 360.803712
2025-08-17 0.209465 2.076914 9.478099 31.429960 82.862628 182.935366 373.231837
2025-08-24 0.160739 1.849086 9.012946 31.087242 84.078742 188.889527 390.623431
2025-08-31 0.111444 1.556624 8.235743 29.799491 83.102138 190.609234 400.518291